Economic Policy

Studies

Implement Digital Direct Benefit Transfers: A DBT Readiness Index for the States of India

Both the central and state governments in India operate a vast array of cash and in-kind transfers to protect its poor. But these social protection schemes often suffer from substantial leakages and poor targeting, distort market functioning by subsidising prices and thereby impose significant fiscal stress without commensurate social benefits. India is seeking to port these subsidies into direct-to-beneficiary transfers, often called Direct Benefit Transfers or DBT. Implementing DBT should be a means to an end, not only to reduce leakages in the Indian subsidy system, but also to ensure that the targeted poor and vulnerable in society get timely transfers at low cost in time and money. In the Indian context DBT readiness is the ability of states/UTs to pursue government to citizen (G2C) and government to bank/business solutions through the use of Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) viz. electronic transfer of cash or in-kind benefits from government to citizen or for effecting cashless in- kind transfers. Accurate targeting of beneficiaries due to Aadhar and biometric verification makes it feasible to avoid leakages due to ghost beneficiaries and to avoid leakages due to duplication errors . The DBT-Readiness of all Indian states and Union Territories (UTs) will be assessed both annually and quarterly by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) over the next three years starting from 2016 to 2018 based on annual surveys. The quarterly assessment will be based off a combination of primary and secondary data available or made available by state/UT governments. States/UTs will be ranked relatively using the annual surveys. The quarterly rankings will be based off absolute index, which will help track states/UTs their own growth over time. In addition to the overall DBT assessment of states and UTs, this survey undertakes DBT Readiness of 10 Central Schemes.

Food Grain Stocking Policy for India

Pending legislation, which will guarantee access by the poor to a specified quantity of food grains, the National Food Security Bill stands to have a major impact on the food grain stocking policy in India. The Bill mentions cash transfers and issuing food coupons to eligible families. However, no concrete steps have been spelled out on this front. It is therefore supposed that the present system of procurement and storage of food grains by the Central and State government agencies shall continue. The successful implementation of the Act will clearly require that much larger stocks be held. Whether these stocks are held by the government or the private sector depends on new instruments being created, e.g., negotiable warehouse receipts-, on new institutions such as public-private partnerships in warehousing and on changes to the legal structure, especially the Essential Commodities Act and the Agricultural Produce Marketing (Regulation) Act

Evaluation Study on Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act

The objectives of the project were threefold: (1) to assess the implementation process, flow of funds, quality of assets, coverage of scheme, impact on livelihood, convergence issues, migration issues, extension of scheme to urban areas, record maintenance, capacity of implementing authorities, norms followed and involvement of PRIs; (2) to examine post construction maintenance aspects, different wages in different states and gender issues in payments; and (3) to review implementation of rules and regulations, and monitoring aspects.

South Asian Perspective on South-South Cooperation

The key objectives of this study are to bring about conceptual clarity by demystifying South-South Cooperation (SSC) in terms of its context, objectives, scope and policy framework. The study will explore the practicalities of SSC in South Asia by assessing their modalities and instruments and their effectiveness. Specific experiences of SSC through empirical evidence and case studies will be revisited and will consider how existing cooperation frameworks support learn from and build on these experiences. Another important aspect of the study is to contribute to the first Ministerial meeting of the Global Partnership on Effective Development Cooperation (GPEDC) in Mexico.

Publications

The NCAER 2019-20 Mid-Year Review of the India Economy

NCAER’s Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy (MYR) presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy. The 2019-20 Review has been published in a longstanding partnership with the India International Centre (IIC), New Delhi.

Skilling India: No Time to Lose

The report addresses the skilling challenge faced by the country. Policymakers in India face the triple challenge of incentivising the creation of more well-paying jobs, creating efficient pathways to skill acquisition and job matching to ensure workers have the right skills, and protecting low-paid, low-skilled workers with social security benefits. An additional challenge comes from the massive number of workers aged 30–59 who are in the workforce but have to be reskilled or up skilled. After suggesting simple ways of thinking about the three types of skills that are fundamental— foundational, employability and entrepreneurial— this Report offers a framework for policymakers and practitioners to use to design, execute and evaluate skilling pathways that can help break the cycle of poor skilling and slow creation of good jobs— the low-skilling trap that India is caught in.

Study to Identify the Gap in Institutional Funding in Agro-Processing Cooperative Sector in India: Overview and Policy Implications

This NCAER study examines the issue of credit penetration, its impact on the performance of agro-processing cooperatives, and the role of the National Cooperative Development Cooperation (NCDC) in facilitating cooperative activities through its financial and logistical support. The bulk of the subsidy in agriculture in India goes to farmers for pre-harvest operations and hardly there is any subsidy available for post-harvest operations like storage, marketing and processing of agricultural produce, which is the crucial forward linkage of the agricultural sector. It is also important to provide assistance, interest subvention and subsidies to the cooperative sector engaged in post-harvest operations for the benefit of farmers at the grassroots level. Boosting post-harvest operations in the cooperative sector could prevent the losses being suffered by farmers. The study investigates the possible gaps in institutional funding to NCDC that might reduce its effectiveness in supporting agro-processing cooperatives in India.

A Pilot Impact Assessment of the Digital-India Land Records Modernisation Programme - Himachal Pradesh

This report focuses on assessing the performance of the Digital India-Land Records Modernisation Programme (DI-LRMP) scheme in the state of Himachal Pradesh, and the achievement exhibited by the state in computerising and modernising land records. It is part of a study in which pilot impact assessments were carried out by NCAER in Himachal Pradesh, NIPFP in Rajasthan, and IGIDR in Maharashtra. The imperative for a land record management and modernisation initiative has been driven by the huge rise in the number of pending court cases relating to land disputes. Improvements on this front would not only help reduce property litigation, but also boost efficiency in land markets thereby facilitating the ease of doing business in the country. The Government of India recognizes the relevance and significance of land record management, which is reflected in its efforts to computerize the land records since late 1980s. In 2008, Department of Land Resources (Ministry of Rural Development), Government of India, merged the two existing land record computerization schemes to launch National Land Records Modernization Programme (NLRMP), which was revamped to Digital India-Land Records Modernisation Programme (DI-LRMP) in 2014. The immediate objective of the programme is to establish a modern, efficient land records management system in the country with real-time updated land records and it ultimately aims to achieve a system of conclusive titling that would ensure conclusive proof of the ownership of a land. The program has been in existence for many years, but had not hitherto been evaluated in detail in the field. In this context, pilot impact assessments were carried out in the three states. NCAER coordinated this effort and also prepared an overall synthesis report.

A Pilot Impact Assessment of the Digital-India Land Records Modernisation Programme

This is the overall synthesis report of the pilot impact assessments of the Digital India-Land Records Modernisation Programme (DI-LRMP) scheme carried out by NCAER in Himachal Pradesh, NIPFP in Rajasthan, and IGIDR in Maharashtra. It presents the overall policy and programme design recommendations for moving ahead on India's quest for more secure land titles. The imperative for a land record management and modernisation initiative has been driven by the huge rise in the number of pending court cases relating to land disputes. Improvements on this front would not only help reduce property litigation, but also boost efficiency in land markets thereby facilitating the ease of doing business in the country. The Government of India recognizes the relevance and significance of land record management, which is reflected in its efforts to computerize the land records since late 1980s. In 2008, Department of Land Resources (Ministry of Rural Development), Government of India, merged the two existing land record computerization schemes to launch National Land Records Modernization Programme (NLRMP), which was revamped to Digital India-Land Records Modernisation Programme (DI-LRMP) in 2014. The immediate objective of the programme is to establish a modern, efficient land records management system in the country with real-time updated land records and it ultimately aims to achieve a system of conclusive titling that would ensure conclusive proof of the ownership of a land. The program has been in existence for many years, but had not hitherto been evaluated in detail in the field. In this context, pilot impact assessments were carried out in the three states. NCAER coordinated this effort and also prepared an overall synthesis report.

Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2015-16

NCAER’s Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy (MYR) presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy. The 2015–16 Review has been published for the fifth year running in a longstanding partnership with the India International Centre (IIC), New Delhi. The MYR 2015 includes two special papers, also included in this publication.

The NCAER State Investment Potential Index (N-SIPI) 2016

NCAER-State Investment Potential Index or N-SIPI is an evidence-based index that combines published secondary data on key relevant parameters with an extensive industry survey conducted by NCAER across twenty states and the Union Territory of Delhi. It is uniquely poised to provide a single composite investment score designed to give a comprehensive measure of how the states of India are positioned to encourage and attract investment. N-SIPI has been built on five big pillars and comprises 51 sub-indicators. A unique component of N-SIPI is that it merges a perception based index (constructed using surveys) with fundamentals driving investment decisions to capture state level differences.

Evaluation Study of Targeted Public Distribution System in Selected States

Using primary survey data, this report assesses whether, and to what extent, the weaknesses noted by past evaluation studies on the TPDS have been adequately addressed by state governments. Six states viz., Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal are covered. Of these, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Karnataka have already implemented the NFSA (2013), while the remaining states follow the TPDS.

Economic Benefits of Dynamic Weather and Ocean Information and Advisory Services in India and Cost and Pricing of Customized Products and Services of ESSO-NCMRWF & ESSO-INCOIS (Phase III)

Kerala Perspective Plan 2030

The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 (KPP) prepared by NCAER for the Kerala State Board of Planning is a strategic path forward for Kerala to achieve economic and living standards equivalent to Nordic countries. KPP 2030 targets leapfrogging the high middle income threshold in the next 15 years and the high income threshold in the next 15 years. It seeks to position Kerala among the Nordic countries in terms of human capital and social and environmental indices. The mission is to achieve sustainable prosperity which includes economic, human well-being, social and green prosperity. To achieve that, Kerala needs to build a sustainable development framework, which involves building a “knowledge economy” and incorporate principles of “sustainable development”. The approach of KPP 2030 is to build on Kerala’s achievements, discuss the challenges faced by the state in a globalising economy and propose strategies to achieve the goals. That is the why the KPP is organised in four volumes, which elaborate on four interconnected themes that together constitute its central tenet of balancing economic prosperity, social inclusion and environmental stewardship. Volume 1 begins with the an analysis of the growth of the economy, identifies growth drivers and dynamism of enterprises in different sectors. Volume 2 discusses the key bases to develop a knowledge economy. Volume 3 is the environmental sustainability volume. Infrastructure which is linked to both growth and environmental sustainability is included in this volume. The last volume is the social sustainability volume. Health, which is both foundational and a key engine of economic growth is included in this volume.

Events

How to leverage open government, research, and data to strengthen public policymaking in India

November 7, 2019

Around 100 participants from a diverse group of researchers, policymakers, civil society, representatives of international organizations and corporate sector attended this seminar co-hosted by NCAER and 3ie. The event was held in the new Conference Centre at NCAER offering world-class facilities. Participants working on development economics, impact evaluation and for the government as well as technology sector discussed on a variety of topics on how to leverage open government, data and research to strengthen public policymaking in India.

Mid-Year Review of the Economy 2017-18

November 11, 2017

In a long standing partnership with the India International Centre, NCAER released its 2017-18 Mid-year Review (MYR) of the Indian Economy, at the India International Centre, New Delhi. The MYR presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy.

Malcolm Adiseshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2017-18

November 11, 2017

The India Policy Forum Lecture 2016

July 12, 2016

Dr Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India delivered the India Policy Forum Lecture 2016. He spoke on India and the “India and the Global Economy Post-Brexit”.He also released NCAER’s 2015-16 India Policy Forum volume on this occasion.

China and India: Pathways to a Common Asian Future

October 19, 2015

NCAER hosted their Chinese guests from the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) in a Dialogue on India and China: Pathways to a Common Asian Future.

The Future of Indian Agriculture: Policy Options for Competitive, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth

April 8, 2015

NCAER has been working on the future of Indian agriculture and policy options for more competitive, inclusive and sustainable growth.This work is being supported by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). NCAER is working closely with faculty at Monash and Victoria Universities in Melbourne; IFPRI in Washington, D.C.; NSW Trade and Investment; and IDFC. In this context, NCAER organised an important workshop on The Future of Indian Agriculture: Policy Options for Competitive, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth.

National Workshop on Enhancing the Scope and Quality of Indian FDI Statistics

March 10, 2015

With the Government’s ‘Make in India’ programme generating considerable interest from an expanding array of international investors, India is likely to see a spurt in foreign direct investment over the next few years.

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modelling for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

September 22, 2014

Over the last decade, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework has become a workhorse for macroeconomic analysis in both academic and policy circles.

The India Policy Forum 2014

July 15, 2014

The India Policy Forum is organised every July in New Delhi by NCAER, the National Council of Applied Economic Research, in cooperation with the Brookings Institution. Its objective is to promote rigorous research on Indian economic policy with commissioned papers, an annual conference leading to a published volume, and the annual IPF Lecture. A distinguished international Advisory Panel and an international Research Panel guide the IPF. The annual IPF Volume is the highest ranked economic journal out of India based on citation counts. The IPF enters its 11th year in 2014.

India Policy Forum 2013|14 volume released

July 15, 2014

2014 India Policy Forum Lecture India: Changing Mindsets, Accelerating Growth, Reducing Inequality by Surjit S. Bhalla

Researchers

Shashanka Bhide

Dr Shashanka Bhide is a Senior Advisor, Research Programmes, at NCAER. He was associated with NCAER from 1982 to 2014 in different capacities. After leaving NCAER in July 2014, he took up the position of Director, Madras Institute of Development Studies, Chennai until his retirement in December 2018. His research has covered a number of areas in agriculture, macroeconomic modelling, infrastructure and poverty analysis. He has published extensively, including co-authoring and editing books and journal articles in these fields. Shashanka currently also serves as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI and Board of Governors of the Institute for Social and Economic Change in Bangalore.

Pallavi Choudhuri

Pallavi Choudhuri is a Fellow at NCAER, working with the National Data Innovation Centre (NDIC). Her ongoing research delves into issues related to gender, financial inclusion, and development, using applied micro-econometric tools. Previously at NCAER, she has worked on assessing challenges to skill development and workforce participation and on examining the pace of business regulatory reforms. Prior to joining NCAER, Choudhuri taught courses in Economics and Finance at the Grand Valley State University and the University of Wyoming. She has a PhD in Economics from the University of Wyoming, where her research focused on risks and regulation in the U.S. banking industry.

Mousumi Das

Mousumi Das is a micro-econometrician and her research interests are in poverty measurement, nutrition and health, gender, migration, and education. Mousumi was earlier an Assistant Professor in the Economics Department at Xavier University, Bhubaneswar, and, prior to that, an Assistant Professor at IFMR- KREA University in Chennai. She has been a consultant with the World Bank where she worked with the South Asia Regional Gender Innovation Lab. She has been a Visiting Fellow at IFPRI in Washington DC, a Research Associate at NIBM Pune, and a Mortgage Officer at the Royal Bank of Scotland office in Gurgaon. She has won a number of fellowships and awards.

Tasneem Ravindra Deo

K P Krishnan

Dr K P Krishnan is the IEPF Chair Professor in Regulatory Economics. The Chair has been established with the support of the Investor Education and Protection Fund Authority of the Government of India. Dr Krishnan leads a group focused on research and policy outreach in the broad area of regulatory and public economics, including concerns about investor protection and financial sector reforms, land policy and records, public finance and public administration, and law, economics, and justice.

Before his retirement from public service in December 2019, Dr Krishnan was the Union Secretary in the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship. Prior to that he was Special & Additional Secretary, Department of Land Resources, Ministry of Rural Development; Additional Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance; Principal Secretary, Department of Personnel & Administrative Reforms in the Government of Karnataka (his parent cadre); Secretary to the PM’s Economic Advisory Council in New Delhi; Joint Secretary, DEA; Secretary Finance in Karnataka; Advisor to the Indian ED at the World Bank, Dr Bimal Jalan; and a number of other positions after joining the Indian Administrative Service in the 1983 batch.

Trained in economics, finance, and law, Dr Krishnan has chaired or served as a member of several Government of India committees, including the Krishnan Committee on Cross Border Insolvency Rules/Regulation Committee, the Krishnan Committee on Comprehensive Regulation of Credit Rating Agencies, the T K Viswanathan Committee on Reform of Bankruptcy Laws in India; the Rangarajan High-level Expert Committee on Efficient Management of Public Expenditure; High-level Coordination Committee on Financial Markets chaired by the RBI Governor; and the Rajan Committee on Financial Sector Reforms.

Professor Krishnan has taught as a visiting professor at the Indian School of Business, at Ashoka University, as BOK Visiting International School Professor of Regulation at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, and he regularly lectures at the Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration in Mussorie. He has published on a range of public policy issues in books, journals, and the mainstream media. Dr Krishnan holds a B.A. (Hons) in Economics from St Stephen’s College and an LL.B. degree from the University of Delhi, an M.A. in Economics from the University of Mysore, and a FPM/Ph.D. in Economics & Finance from the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.

Sudipto Mundle

Sudipto Mundle is a Distinguished Fellow at NCAER. Formerly, he was an Emeritus Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi. He serves on several corporate and other boards. He was also a member of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, the erstwhile Monetary Policy Advisory Committee of the RBI and the National Statistical Commission, where he also acted as Chairman.

He spent much of his career at the Asian Development Bank, Manila, from where he retired as a Director in the Strategy and Policy Department in 2008. In his earlier career in India he served in several academic institutions including the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, the Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, and NIPFP, New Delhi, where he was the Reserve Bank Chair Professor. He has had visiting assignments at Yale University, USA; Cambridge University, UK; the Institute of Social Studies at the Hague and the Japan Foundation, Tokyo. He was also an economic adviser in India’s Ministry of Finance from 1986 to 1989. His current research interests include development economics, macroeconomic policy and modelling, public expenditure policy and governance.

Premila Nazareth Satyanand

Sanjib Pohit

Sanjib Pohit is a Professor at NCAER. He is an experienced modeler in the area of trade and environment with 20 years of modelling experience. His domain of research experience includes science and technology policies, institutional economics, transport economics, input-output models, FDI, informal trade, automobile industry, and South Asian integration. Previously, he held position at CSIR-National Institute of Science, Technology & Development Studies as Professor AcSIR & Senior Principal Scientist. He has served as members of several committees of Government of India including climate Change Modelling group of Ministry of Environment & Forests. He was educated at Indian Statistical Institute.

Prerna Prabhakar

Prerna Prabhakar is Associate Fellow at NCAER. Her primary areas of research include international economics and land related issues. At NCAER, she has been part of the research team for conducting a pilot impact assessment exercise of the Digital India-Land Records Modernization Programme, a Government of India programme to modernise land records in India. Her other assignments involve work on the NCAER State Investment Potential Index (NSIPI), 2017 and 2018 editions. Her current research interests pertain to land institutions and its linkages with the economy and hence the influence on the global competitiveness.

Prerna has a PhD in International Trade from the Department of Business Economics, University of Delhi, and MSc in Economics from TERI School of Advanced Studies.

Shekhar Shah

Shekhar Shah is the Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

As the CEO of India’s oldest and largest independent economic think tank, he manages NCAER’s wide-ranging research activities across all sectors of the economy, including its extensive data collection, innovation, and curation activities. Prior to joining NCAER Shah was the World Bank’s Regional Economic Adviser for South Asia and, earlier, Sector Manager in the Bank’s research complex and a principal author of the 2004 World Development Report, Making Services Work for Poor People. During a World Bank career spanning more than two decades, Shah also served as the Bank’s Deputy Research Administrator, Sector Manager for Public Sector Management for Europe and Central Asia, and Lead Economist for Bangladesh. Before joining the Bank he was the Ford Foundation’s Program Officer for Economics and International Relations for South Asia. He worked earlier in Washington DC consulting for the US Federal Reserve Board, FDIC, the OCC, and US banks and bank holding companies.

Shah received his BA in Economics from St Stephens College, Delhi University, and his MA and PhD in Economics from Columbia University.

Anushree Sinha

Anushree Sinha, Professor, joined NCAER in 1989 and has held several positions since then. Before assuming her current position, she was NCAER’s Principal Economist during 2001-2003. She worked in macro- economic analyses including Macro Forecasting Modelling at NCAER. In her current research she uses general equilibrium frameworks to analyse the impact of policies and external economic shocks on the social sector including the informal and female workers. She is a post- doctorate from the Department of International Development, University of Oxford and has been a Fulbright-Nehru Lecturing Professor at Rutgers during 2013-14.