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Studies

Study on India's Trade Preference Scheme for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in Africa





This study aims to provide a simulation analysis of the trade preference scheme specified by India to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in Africa on the basis of plausible alternative scenarios for an enhanced and expanded duty-free scheme, and to produce a report, written in a style accessible to a non-technical audience, with appropriate recommendations.

Enhancing the Scope and Quality of Indian FDI Statistics





This study is targeted at bringing the focus of high-level policy attention on the urgent need to revamp India’s FDI statistical system for an accurate view of Foreign Direct Investment inflows a / outflows and their impact.

Study of the Impact of Parallel Imports of Books, Films/ Music, and Software on the Indian Economy with Special Reference to Students





The Indian Copyright Act (1957) prohibits parallel imports of books, films/music and software. The copyright (Amendment) Bill 2010 seeks to insert the following proviso to section 2 of the IPA (1957): “provided that a copy of a work published in any country outside India with the permission of the author of the work and imported from that country into India shall not be deemed to be an infringing copy”. The study undertook cost-benefit analysis for producers and consumers of these products as a consequence of parallel imports being allowed in India.

South Asian Perspective on South-South Cooperation





The key objectives of this study are to bring about conceptual clarity by demystifying South-South Cooperation (SSC) in terms of its context, objectives, scope and policy framework. The study will explore the practicalities of SSC in South Asia by assessing their modalities and instruments and their effectiveness. Specific experiences of SSC through empirical evidence and case studies will be revisited and will consider how existing cooperation frameworks support learn from and build on these experiences. Another important aspect of the study is to contribute to the first Ministerial meeting of the Global Partnership on Effective Development Cooperation (GPEDC) in Mexico.

Publications

The NCAER 2019-20 Mid-Year Review of the India Economy





NCAER’s Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy (MYR) presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy. The 2019-20 Review has been published in a longstanding partnership with the India International Centre (IIC), New Delhi.

The US-China Trade War Impact on India and its Policy Choices





The five-year period 2012-13 to 2016-17 witnessed a decline in Indian merchandise exports at an average rate of 4.5 percent per annum. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry initiated a discussion in August 2018 on designing a strategy for doubling India’s exports by 2025. This growth from US$ 504 billion exports of goods and services in 2017-18 to above US$ 1,000 billion in 2025-26 would imply an underlying growth rate of exports of above 9 percent per annum. While merchandise exports constitute close to 63 percent of total exports, the share of service exports has been 37 percent during the last three years, 2015-16 to 2017-18. Assuming these proportions remain unchanged, a doubling of merchandise exports in six years would mean going from the base 2017-18 level of US$ 309 billion to about US$ 618 billion by 2025-26, and service exports going from US$ 195 billion to US$ 390 billion. These are challenging targets. They raise the question of whether there are unexplored strategic opportunities in the current global trade situation, including in the looming US-China trade war, which can help India either achieve these targets or at least ensure that there are no significant reversals on the path to achieving them. This NCAER paper reflects on how India should react to the trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Money's Causal Role in Exchange Rate: Do Divisia Monetary Aggregates Explain More?





We investigate the predictive power of Divisia monetary aggregates in explaining exchange rate variations for India, Israel, Poland, UK and the US, in the years leading up to and following the 2007-08 recessions. One valid concern for the chosen sample period is that the interest rate has been stuck at or near the zero lower bound (ZLB) for some major economies. Consequently, the interest rate has become uninformative about the monetary policy stance. An important innovation in our research is to adopt the Divisia monetary aggregate as an alternative to the policy indicator variable. We apply bootstrap Granger causality method which is robust to the presence of non-stationarity in our data. Additionally, we use bootstrap rolling window estimates to account for the problems of parameter non-constancy and structural breaks in our sample covering the Great recession. We find strong causality from Divisia money to exchange rates. By capturing the time-varying link of Divisia money to exchange rate, the importance of Divisia is further established at ZLB.

Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy





Lucas (1990) argues that the neoclassical adjustment process fails to explain the relative paucity of FDI inflows from rich to poor countries. In this paper we consider a natural experiment: using China as the treated country and India as the control, we show that the dynamics of the relative FDI flows subsequent to the implementation of China’s one-child policy, as seen in the data, are consistent with neoclassical fundamentals. In particular, following the introduction of the one-child policy in China, the capital-labor (K/L) ratio of China increased relative to that of India, and, simultaneously, relative FDI inflows into China vs. India declined. These observations are explained in the context of a simple neoclassical OLG paradigm. The adjustment mechanism works as follows: the reduction in the (urban) labor force due to the one-child policy increases the savings per capita. This increases the K/L ratio and reduces the marginal product of capital (MPK). The reduction in MPK (relative to India) reduces the relative attractiveness of investment in China and is thus associated with lower FDI/GDP ratios. Our paper contributes to the nascent literature exploring demographic transitions and their effects on FDI flows.

Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2015-16





NCAER’s Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy (MYR) presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy. The 2015–16 Review has been published for the fifth year running in a longstanding partnership with the India International Centre (IIC), New Delhi. The MYR 2015 includes two special papers, also included in this publication.

Enhancing the Scope and Quality of Indian FDI Statistics





India has been amongst the world’s twenty largest hosts to foreign direct investment (FDI) for much of the period between 2006 and 2014. In 2014, it became the world’s ninth largest FDI recipient, and the Indian government is prioritising FDI as a key driver for economic growth, employment and global competitiveness. It is thus crucial that Indian policymakers have a thorough and holistic view of India’s FDI inflows and outflows, and their economic contribution to the Indian economy. Detailed, robust and easily accessible FDI data is fundamental to this insight.

Kerala Perspective Plan 2030





The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 (KPP) prepared by NCAER for the Kerala State Board of Planning is a strategic path forward for Kerala to achieve economic and living standards equivalent to Nordic countries. KPP 2030 targets leapfrogging the high middle income threshold in the next 15 years and the high income threshold in the next 15 years. It seeks to position Kerala among the Nordic countries in terms of human capital and social and environmental indices. The mission is to achieve sustainable prosperity which includes economic, human well-being, social and green prosperity. To achieve that, Kerala needs to build a sustainable development framework, which involves building a “knowledge economy” and incorporate principles of “sustainable development”. The approach of KPP 2030 is to build on Kerala’s achievements, discuss the challenges faced by the state in a globalising economy and propose strategies to achieve the goals. That is the why the KPP is organised in four volumes, which elaborate on four interconnected themes that together constitute its central tenet of balancing economic prosperity, social inclusion and environmental stewardship. Volume 1 begins with the an analysis of the growth of the economy, identifies growth drivers and dynamism of enterprises in different sectors. Volume 2 discusses the key bases to develop a knowledge economy. Volume 3 is the environmental sustainability volume. Infrastructure which is linked to both growth and environmental sustainability is included in this volume. The last volume is the social sustainability volume. Health, which is both foundational and a key engine of economic growth is included in this volume.

Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2014-15





This economic outlook by NCAER, co published with India International Centre, New Delhi, analyses expected growth, inflation, balance of payments, fiscal balances, savings and investment trends, and covers the state of important sectors of the economy, including the financial and corporate sectors for that fiscal year. Long-term trends in the macro-economic performance of the Indian economy, the outlook and the policy responses required to meet these challenges are discussed.

A Simulation Analysis of India's Duty-Free Trade Preference Scheme





This paper by NCAER project team led by Dr Rajesh Chadha, Senior Research Counsellor, been produced under the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD) Programme on Competitiveness and Development. The objective of this study is to analyse the likely impacts of the trade preference scheme on India and the AFLDCs. The study is premised on the view that an enhanced engagement of India with AFLDCs will allow India to deepen South-South trade cooperation.

Principal Gaps in India's FDI Statistics: User Perspectives





This note summarises the findings of interviews with senior Indian policy-makers and FDI researchers to ascertain the adequacy of India’s FDI statistics in answering important FDI policy and research questions. The principal gaps identified are: lack of data on the operations of foreign firms in India, on the state and district break-up of FDI inflows, on the specific nature of FDI activity within a sector, and on the correct country source of FDI inflows. Another major gap is that there is as yet no complete inventory, location-wise, of foreign direct investors in the country.

Events

Mid-Year Review of the Economy 2017-18

November 11, 2017



In a long standing partnership with the India International Centre, NCAER released its 2017-18 Mid-year Review (MYR) of the Indian Economy, at the India International Centre, New Delhi. The MYR presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy.

Malcolm Adiseshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2017-18

November 11, 2017

Colonial Legacy, Services Trade and LDCs

October 16, 2017

Malcolm Adiseshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy, 2016-17

November 5, 2016



NCAER presented the 2016-17 Mid Year Review of Indian Economy at a seminar held in New Delhi. The review presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy as the Indian Government and its Ministry of Finance begin preparation of the FY 2017-18 Union Budget. Dr Pronab Sen, Country Director, International Growth Centre’s India Central Programme chaired the Review.

The India Policy Forum Lecture 2016

July 12, 2016



Dr Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India delivered the India Policy Forum Lecture 2016. He spoke on India and the “India and the Global Economy Post-Brexit”.He also released NCAER’s 2015-16 India Policy Forum volume on this occasion.

Malcolm Adiseshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2015-16

November 14, 2015



The Review of Indian Economy presented by NCAER today, covered the performance of the economy during the first half of the current fiscal year and made projections for the later part of the year. The presentations were Webcast Live, enabling remote participation.

China and India: Pathways to a Common Asian Future

October 19, 2015



NCAER hosted their Chinese guests from the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) in a Dialogue on India and China: Pathways to a Common Asian Future.

State of the Economy Seminar

May 14, 2015



NCAER presented its Quarterly Review of the Economy at this seminar held at NCAER. The review covered the performance of the economy in the last quarter of 2014-15 and presented forecast for 2015-16.

The Future of Indian Agriculture: Policy Options for Competitive, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth

April 8, 2015



NCAER has been working on the future of Indian agriculture and policy options for more competitive, inclusive and sustainable growth.This work is being supported by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). NCAER is working closely with faculty at Monash and Victoria Universities in Melbourne; IFPRI in Washington, D.C.; NSW Trade and Investment; and IDFC. In this context, NCAER organised an important workshop on The Future of Indian Agriculture: Policy Options for Competitive, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth.

National Workshop on Enhancing the Scope and Quality of Indian FDI Statistics

March 10, 2015



With the Government’s ‘Make in India’ programme generating considerable interest from an expanding array of international investors, India is likely to see a spurt in foreign direct investment over the next few years.

Researchers

Saurabh Bandyopadhyay



Saurabh Bandyopadhyay is a Fellow at NCAER.  He has worked in the areas of industry, infrastructure, agriculture, and consumer demand, including in projects with important field survey components.  His recent research includes work on transport, including understanding freight demand for Indian Railways and an earlier study for the Railways on passenger demand, and on the aviation sector to estimate the economic and regional impacts of an international airline’s operations.   He is currently working as part of a team on developing a skills index for the states of India for a large research project on understanding the demand and supply factors for skilling in India, and is likely to begin work on a study of the medium and long-term competitiveness of the Indian Railways. Bandyopadhyay received his PhD in economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University and an MSc in economics from the University of Calcutta.

Bornali Bhandari



Bornali Bhandari is a Senior Fellow at NCAER with a background in international economics and macroeconomics, specifically focusing on the impact of globalisation on development. Currently she is engaged in analysing and assessing the progress and prospects of implementing Direct Benefit Transfers in states and Union Territories. Her wider research interests include analysis of skilling from a 3-E perspective (education, employability and employment), infrastructure, particularly the roads and ICT sectors, G-20 issues like climate change financing and reserve currency, FDI and trade-related issues. She also oversees the production of NCAER’s macro publications, the Quarterly Review of the Economy, and Quarterly Business Expectations Survey. 

 

Bornali received her PhD in Economics from the University of Oregon, Eugene, USA.

 

Sudipto Mundle



Sudipto Mundle is a Distinguished Fellow at NCAER. Formerly, he was an Emeritus Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi. He serves on several corporate and other boards. He was also a member of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, the erstwhile Monetary Policy Advisory Committee of the RBI  and the National Statistical Commission, where he also acted as Chairman. 

 

He spent much of his career at the Asian Development Bank, Manila, from where he retired as a Director in the Strategy and Policy Department in 2008. In his earlier career in India he served in several academic institutions including the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, the Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, and NIPFP, New Delhi, where he was the Reserve Bank Chair Professor. He has had visiting assignments at Yale University, USA; Cambridge University, UK; the Institute of Social Studies at the Hague and the Japan Foundation, Tokyo. He was also an economic adviser in India’s Ministry of Finance from 1986 to 1989. His current research interests include development economics, macroeconomic policy and modelling, public expenditure policy and governance. 

 

Premila Nazareth Satyanand



Sanjib Pohit



Sanjib Pohit is a Professor at NCAER. He is an experienced modeler in the area of trade and environment with 20 years of modelling experience. His domain of research experience includes science and technology policies, institutional economics, transport economics, input-output models, FDI, informal trade, automobile industry, and South Asian integration. Previously, he held position at CSIR-National Institute of Science, Technology & Development Studies as Professor AcSIR & Senior Principal Scientist. He has served as members of several committees of Government of India including climate Change Modelling group of Ministry of Environment & Forests. He was educated at Indian Statistical Institute. 

Prerna Prabhakar



Prerna Prabhakar is Associate Fellow at NCAER. Her primary areas of research include international economics and land related issues.  At NCAER, she has been part of the research team for conducting a pilot impact assessment exercise of the Digital India-Land Records Modernization Programme, a Government of India programme to modernise land records in India. Her other assignments involve work on the NCAER State Investment Potential Index (NSIPI), 2017 and 2018 editions. Her current research interests pertain to land institutions and its linkages with the economy and hence the influence on the global competitiveness.  

Prerna has a PhD in International Trade from the Department of Business Economics, University of Delhi, and MSc in Economics from TERI School of Advanced Studies.

 

Devender Pratap



Devender Pratap is a Fellow at NCAER. His current research interests include trade policy analysis/CGE modelling, GTAP database, social accounting matrix, input output analysis, construction of base-run for CGE modelling, macro-econometric modelling and agricultural/livestock economy. At NCAER, he has handled three major CGE models in single-country and multi-country frameworks. He has also been involved in the NCAER survey of agricultural markets in India.  

Shekhar Shah



Shekhar Shah is the Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

 

As the CEO of India’s oldest and largest independent economic think tank, he manages NCAER’s wide-ranging research activities across all sectors of the economy, including its extensive data collection, innovation, and curation activities. Prior to joining NCAER Shah was the World Bank’s Regional Economic Adviser for South Asia and, earlier, Sector Manager in the Bank’s research complex and a principal author of the 2004 World Development Report, Making Services Work for Poor People. During a World Bank career spanning more than two decades, Shah also served as the Bank’s Deputy Research Administrator, Sector Manager for Public Sector Management for Europe and Central Asia, and Lead Economist for Bangladesh. Before joining the Bank he was the Ford Foundation’s Program Officer for Economics and International Relations for South Asia. He worked earlier in Washington DC consulting for the US Federal Reserve Board, FDIC, the OCC, and US banks and bank holding companies.

 

Shah received his BA in Economics from St Stephens College, Delhi University, and his MA and PhD in Economics from Columbia University. 

Anushree Sinha



Anushree Sinha, Professor, joined NCAER in 1989 and has held several positions since then. Before assuming her current position, she was NCAER’s Principal Economist during 2001-2003.  She worked in macro- economic analyses including Macro Forecasting Modelling at NCAER. In her current research she uses general equilibrium frameworks to analyse the impact of policies and external economic shocks on the social sector including the informal and female workers. She is a post- doctorate from the Department of International Development, University of Oxford and has been a Fulbright-Nehru Lecturing Professor at Rutgers during 2013-14.

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